Vietnam’s economy expanded by 8.23 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, slightly ahead of the 8.19 percent growth seen in the previous quarter. The result was viewed as unusually strong given the headwinds. A 20 percent U.S. tariff on Vietnamese goods, especially footwear and textiles, took effect on August 7, hitting those export sectors hard. In September, U.S.-bound exports fell 1.4 percent compared with August, though year-on-year they still rose by 38 percent.
Footwear exports to the U.S. plunged 27 percent in September, while textile and garment exports dropped 20 percent. However, gains in exports of coffee, chemicals, and electronics helped to offset those declines. Over July to September, total exports increased by 18.4 percent to about US$128.6 billion, while imports reached US$119.66 billion, producing a trade surplus around US$8.91 billion. Industrial production rose 9.1 percent, and foreign direct investment jumped 8.5 percent to US$18.8 billion, the highest level in five years.
Tourism was a boon—with a 21.5 percent increase—and retail sales grew 11.3 percent year-on-year. Lending activity remained strong, supporting private demand. Consumer prices rose 3.38 percent in September, staying below the annual target. The Vietnamese stock market responded favorably, climbing roughly 2 percent after the data release.
The data suggest the economy was resilient in the face of trade pressures. Observers note the diversification of export portfolio and strength in domestic demand were key. The tariff shock remains a risk, but Vietnam’s ability to shift toward higher-value goods may better position it to sustain momentum.
